BC reduz projeção de crescimento da economia este ano para 2%

O Banco Central (BC) reduziu a projeção para o crescimento da economia este ano. A estimativa para a expansão do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) – soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país – passou de 2,4% para 2%. A projeção consta do Relatório de Inflação, divulgado trimestralmente pelo BC.

Entre os fatores para essa redução, o BC cita o crescimento menor do que o esperado no quarto trimestre de 2018, o que reduziu o “carregamento estatístico [herança do que ocorreu no ano anterior] de 2018 para 2019”. Outros fatores foram os “desdobramentos da tragédia em Brumadinho sobre a produção da indústria extrativa mineral”. Além disso, o BC cita a redução estimada para a safra agrícola e a moderação verificada no ritmo de recuperação da economia.

Setores

Para o BC, a produção da agropecuária deverá crescer 1% no ano, ante estimativa de elevação de 2% prevista em dezembro, após crescimento de 0,1% em 2018. A projeção para o desempenho da indústria foi reduzida de 2,9% para 1,8%. A estimativa de crescimento da indústria de transformação passou de 3,2% para 1,8%.

A previsão para a indústria extrativa recuou de 7,6% para 3,2%. As estimativas de crescimento para construção civil e para produção e distribuição de eletricidade, gás e água foram mantidas em 0,6% e 2,3%, respectivamente.

O BC estima crescimento de 2% para o setor terciário (comércio e serviços) em 2019. Em dezembro, a previsão era 2,1%.

Também houve recuo na projeção para o consumo das famílias, de 2,5% para 2,2%, “em linha com o relativo arrefecimento no ritmo de recuperação do mercado de trabalho no final de 2018 e início deste ano”. A estimativa para a Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo (FBCF) – investimentos – apresentou ligeiro declínio (de 4,4% para 4,3%), enquanto a projeção para o consumo do governo permaneceu inalterada em 0,6%.

As exportações e as importações de bens e serviços devem variar, na ordem, 3,9% e 5,6% em 2019, ante projeções respectivas de 5,7% e 6,1% do Relatório de Inflação de dezembro. “A redução na projeção para as exportações reflete diminuição em estimativas para a safra de grãos, possíveis impactos na exportação de minério de ferro decorrentes da tragédia de Brumadinho, revisões para baixo nas previsões para o crescimento mundial e incertezas quanto à recuperação da economia da Argentina, importante destino de bens manufaturados nacionais, em especial veículos”, diz o BC.

Já a diminuição na estimativa para as importações decorre de redução nas projeções de crescimento da indústria de transformação e da FBCF, “com consequente decréscimo das aquisições de insumos e de máquinas e equipamentos, bem como da redução na projeção para o consumo das famílias”.

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