Balança comercial tem segundo melhor saldo da história para fevereiro

A balança comercial – diferença entre exportações e importações – fechou fevereiro com o segundo maior saldo positivo para o mês desde o início da série histórica, em 1989. No mês passado, o país vendeu US$ 3,673 bilhões a mais do que comprou do exterior, de acordo com a Secretaria de Comércio Exterior do Ministério da Economia.

O recorde anterior da balança comercial em meses de fevereiro havia sido registrado em fevereiro de 2017, quando o superávit atingiu US$ 4,555 bilhões. Segundo o Ministério da Economia, a balança comercial registrou superávit de US$ 2,999 bilhões em fevereiro do ano passado.

As exportações somaram US$ 16,293 bilhões, recuo de 15,8% em relação a fevereiro do ano passado pelo critério da média diária. As importações totalizaram US$ 14,411 bilhões, queda de 21,2% na mesma comparação, também pelo critério da média diária. Nos dois primeiros meses de 2019, a balança comercial registrou superávit de US$ 5,865 bilhões, contra saldo positivo de US$ 5,823 bilhões no mesmo período de 2018.

Composição

Em relação às exportações, as vendas de produtos manufaturados caíram 32,3% em fevereiro na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano passado, pelo critério da média diária. O resultado foi influenciado por uma exportação de plataforma de petróleo de US$ 1,5 bilhão feita em fevereiro do ano passado que não se repetiu neste ano. No entanto, outros produtos registraram queda na comparação, como veículos de carga (-56,3%), automóveis de passageiros (-46,6%) e máquinas de terraplanagem (-39,7%).

As vendas de produtos semimanufaturados recuaram 21,2%, puxadas por óleo de soja (-76,5%), ferro fundido (-43,1%) e couros e peles (-30,8%). A única categoria com alta nas exportações foi a dos produtos básicos, cujas vendas para o exterior aumentaram 10,2%. Os principais destaques foram soja em grão (+81,6%), algodão (+44,5%) e milho em grãos (+39,3%).

Segundo o diretor do Departamento de Inteligência e Estatísticas de Comércio Exterior do Ministério da Economia, Herlon Brandão, a queda da demanda por veículos brasileiros da Argentina, o terceiro principal parceiro comercial do Brasil, impactou as exportações de automóveis. Outro fator que reduziu o valor das exportações foi a queda de 22,8% do preço internacional do petróleo no acumulado de 2019 em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado.

No primeiro bimestre, a quantidade exportada cresceu 5,3%. Os preços médios, no entanto, caíram 6,2% em relação ao mesmo período de 2018.

Importações

Em relação às importações, os preços médio das mercadorias compradas aumentou 1,8% em janeiro e fevereiro, mas a quantidade caiu 3% na mesma comparação. Em valores, as compras de bens de capital (máquinas e equipamentos usados na produção) caíram 61,9% em relação a fevereiro do ano passado. A compra de combustíveis e lubrificantes recuou 34,3%; a de bens de consumo, 11,4%, e a de bens intermediários, 2,9%.

Depois de o saldo da balança comercial ter encerrado 2018 em US$ 58,959 bilhões, o segundo maior resultado positivo da história, o mercado estima um superávit menor em 2019 motivado principalmente pela recuperação da economia, que reativa o consumo e as importações.

Segundo o boletim Focus, pesquisa semanal com instituições financeiras divulgada pelo Banco Central, os analistas de mercado preveem superávit de US$ 51 bilhões para este ano. Brandão informou que o Ministério da Economia não fará projeções oficiais para o saldo da balança comercial em 2019.

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